From the moment Joe Biden formally withdrew from the 2024 U.S. presidential race, Kamala Harris was tabbed as the next in line – and her presidential odds surged as a result.
Now, with five weeks to go until election day, the current VP is tied with Donald Trump in the betting odds.
| Candidate | Odds to win 2024 US election at | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
 Kamala Harris |
<-110> | 52.4% |
 Donald Trump |
-110 | 52.4% |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of Oct. 1, 2024. Implied probability in betting is the likelihood of an event occurring as inferred from the odds offered by a sportsbook or the market.
Harris confirmed what sportsbooks and the public had long been expecting, telling supporters at a Philadelphia rally that she has accepted the Democratic presidential nomination.
The announcement capped a whirlwind month-long stretch that kicked off with Biden’s disastrous debate with Donald Trump and a bout with COVID-19 that left pundits on both sides of the aisles wondering whether Biden had the mental fortitude and physical stamina to perform the job.
His shocking withdrawal opened the door wide open for Harris, whom Biden later endorsed in a subsequent post on the social media network.
Let’s take a closer look at the 2024 Democratic Party presidential nominee closing odds.
2024 presidential election Democratic candidate closing odds
| Nomination Winner |  |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -10,000 | 99% |
| Michelle Obama | +3,300 | 2.9% |
| Hillary Clinton | +5,000 | 2% |
| Gavin Newsom | +10,000 | 1% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +15,000 | 0.7% |
Favorite to be the Democratic nominee in 2024
Kamala Harris (-10,000)
Harris was the most logical choice to replace Biden from Day 1. At 59 years old, Harris is significantly younger than Biden and her potential opponent, Donald Trump. Her position also represents the smoothest transition available to Democrats, and oddsmakers seemed to agree.
Harris has the political credentials to challenge for the presidency, but her tenure as VP has had its share of ups and downs. While she’s continued to advocate for abortion rights and finding solutions to the U.S.-Mexico border crisis, both issues have seen significant setbacks under her watch. But while she grapples with a middling approval rating, it’s at least risen above the 40% threshold across some polls since she confirmed her presidential run.
The Aug. 6 rally in Philadelphia also marked the end of the Democratic vice presidential candidate search, with Harris confirming that Minnesota Governor Tim Walz is the pick; The Associated Press first reported it. Walz (who closed the VP odds at -300 on bet365) was selected ahead of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
Democratic party dynamics
Although mainstream media repeatedly resort to the refrain “Democrats in disarray” and its variants due to the caucus’ diversity and intra-party squabbling over policy priorities, the Democrats nevertheless remain largely ideologically unified and disciplined.
Support among rank-and-file members for Democratic Party leadership and their attendant legislative agenda is consistently strong. Indeed, scholarly analyses of congressional roll-call votes, activist attitudes, and public opinion all show that ideological disagreement among Democrats pales to that of their fractious Republican counterparts in contemporary American politics.
Covers U.S. presidential election betting tools
Key issues and campaign strategies
Harris’ campaign is still somewhat fresh, but her strategies are starting to come into focus. In some ways, she’s taken a page from President Biden, whose strategy rested on the country’s continued job and economic growth despite substantial headwinds. J.P. Morgan noted that the economy grew by “an impressive 4.9% annualized rate” in the 3Q, and with labor market pressures easing, inflation is on its way back down toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Harris can tout not only the post-pandemic economic recovery but also the legislative accomplishments during her time in the White House. These domestic successes are headlined by the 2022 “Inflation Reduction Act”—the first major piece of legislation ever passed in Congress focused largely on combating climate change—and the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill. Nonetheless, significant economic pessimism remains due to low consumer confidence owing to concerns about higher future prices.
Past Democratic presidential nominees
| Year | Nominee | State |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Joseph R. Biden | Delaware |
| 2016 | Hillary Clinton | New York |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | Illinois |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | Illinois |
| 2004 | John Kerry | Massachusetts |
| 2000 | Al Gore | Tennessee |
| 1996 | Bill Clinton | Arkansas |
| 1992 | Bill Clinton | Arkansas |
Past Democratic nominee trends
1. Democrats generally prefer political careerists and established Democratic Party loyalists
Joe Biden was among the longest-serving Democratic U.S. senators ever (1973-2009) before being elected as vice president on Barack Obama’s winning ticket in 2008. Biden had also run for president unsuccessfully twice, in 1988 and 2008, before the third time was the charm in 2020. The 2016 Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, was among the most accomplished presidential candidates in history, having served as first lady, U.S. senator from New York, and U.S. secretary of state before becoming the first woman major party nominee.
In 2004, John Kerry had served honorably in the Vietnam War and then as a U.S. senator from Massachusetts for nearly 20 years prior to becoming the nominee. Before him, Al Gore was nominated as the Democratic standard-bearer in 2000 after having served two terms as Bill Clinton’s vice president following service as both a U.S. congressman and U.S. senator from Tennessee. Bill Clinton served a total of more than a decade as Arkansas governor before winning the Democratic nomination in 1992 as the “Comeback Kid,” ultimately becoming the third youngest person inaugurated as U.S. president on January 20, 1993.
The exception to this trend, of course, is Barack Obama, who enjoyed a landslide 2008 presidential election victory despite having served just three years as a U.S. senator from Illinois. Obama burst onto the political scene and into the public consciousness as keynote speaker at the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston, and then he defeated presumptive frontrunner Hillary Clinton in the contested 2008 Democratic primary. Obama’s unique combination of political acumen, policy expertise, and charisma has predictably not been replicated by an “outsider” candidate since in the Democratic Party.
2. Democrats favor lawyers over businesspeople
Although a great number of elected officials in both parties have law degrees, the Democrats are notable in that Biden, Bill and Hillary Clinton, Obama, Kerry, and Gore were all lawyers before serving in public office. By contrast, Republicans Trump, Romney, George W. Bush, and George H.W. Bush were all prominent businessmen before launching their political careers.
Can you bet on the election in the United States?
No. Legal betting sites in the United States do not presently offer odds on the Republican nomination or the 2024 US Election. However, bettors in other countries can bet on the U.S. election. Canadians, in particular, have plenty of options from the top political betting sites when it comes to placing wagers on the US election. Legal options include the regulated Ontario sports betting market, which offers election odds, while bettors in other provinces can also place bets via betting sites Canada allows to operate within its borders.
