Prop bet #1: Nicholas Singleton 60+ rushing yards
Best odds: (-110 at DraftKings)
If you watched any Penn State Nittany Lions football last year, you probably noticed an offense that lacked any ability to generate big plays. Despite possessing one of the best running back tandems in the country and the 11th overall pick in the NFL Draft at tackle, the Nittany Lions found a way to finish 132nd in explosiveness.
Hence why former offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich was kicked to the curb. Enter Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas, along with a four-year, $7.1 million contract and the task of improving the offense to match the defense’s deadly effectiveness.
The hiring makes a ton of sense. The Jayhawks were surgical on offense, ranking fifth in EPA per play, 10th in success rate, and 13th in success rate — all while operating with a backup quarterback for nearly the whole season.
Kotelnicki now has more talent at his disposal and should work wonders for the offense, especially running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. He’s familiar with using multiple backs in his system and has thrived getting his most talented players a heavy workload without losing effectiveness — hence Kansas running back Devin Neal’s 1,497 scrimmage yards and 17 touchdowns a year ago.
Singleton was a five-star prospect out of high school and has long been viewed as an impact NFL running back down the road. He eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards as a true freshman. While his numbers took a step back a year ago, that comes with the caveat that the Nittany Lions were somewhat broken offensively — and he still finished with 1,060 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns.
The West Virginia Mountaineers are far from a force defensively, finishing 88th in EPA per play and 90th in success rate. I expect Kotelnicki to lean on his backfield early and often as a road favorite in a raucous environment.
Prop bet #2: DJ Jones Over 51.5 rushing yards
Best odds: (-114 at FanDuel)
The Wyoming Cowboys were dealt a blow when starting running back Harrison Waylee
and his 2,876 career rushing yards were announced out for the beginning of the year after undergoing arthroscopy surgery on his left knee.
The Cowboys nearly always have a workhorse at running back. They’ve had a 1,000-yard rusher in four of the last five seasons, and Waylee would’ve made that five-for-five if he didn’t miss a few games.
We know that this team wants to run the ball, and we know that they want an RB1 to do the heavy lifting. With Waylee on the mend, there’s a vacancy for carries.
Enter North Carolina transfer D.J. Jones, who is listed as the starting running back on the depth chart and was talked about by the coaching staff as the leader of the room.
Jones showed out in the spring game, handling 12 carries for 77 yards. The veteran will work behind an offensive line that returns four starts and is ready to pave the way for an effective ground game, which is the standard for this program.
Wyoming faces the Arizona State Sun Devils in Week 1, a team that finished 113th in EPA per play and 123rd in success rate. They didn’t show much along the defensive front (129th in line yards, 127th in stuff rate) and this qualifies as a plus matchup.
I’ll snag the discount with a Wyoming running back.
Prop bet #3: Kyren Lacy Over 69.5 receiving yards
Best odds: (-114 at FanDuel)
Let’s head on over to Sunday for our final player prop. There’s a standout game to look forward to as the LSU Tigers take on the USC Trojans at Allegiant Stadium.
Fireworks are expected, as the total has been set at 64.5. It’s easy to see why, as both teams had an elite offense and a terrible defense a year ago.
Both teams were Top 10 in EPA per play on offense (LSU 1st, USC 6th) and Bottom 15 on defense (LSU 126th, USC 122nd). Both programs attempted to fix that deficiency by hiring new defensive coordinators (Blake Baker for LSU, D’Anton Lynn for USC).
While those are two accomplished DCs who qualify as impressive hires, there is a substantial leap to be made for both sides and it’s unlikely we witness that in Week 1.
LSU’s offense should look different this year without Jayden Daniels, but it could still be deadly. Enter Garrett Nussmeier, who was widely viewed as one of the best backup quarterbacks in the country a year ago and is regarded by many scouts and Devy analysts as a candidate to rise precipitously up draft boards with a strong season.
He certainly looked the part during his pilot performance in the RealiaQuest Bowl, completing 31 of 45 attempts for 395 yards and three touchdowns. One of his favorite targets in that game was Kyren Lacy (six catches, 95 yards), who is expected to assume the WR1 role this year.
There’s a massive gaping hole of producing in that room after Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas combined for 2,746 yards and 31 touchdowns. Both have since been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft and Lacy has been an offseason standout, staking his claim as a player in store for a monster season if all goes according to plan.
