Colorado dominated Arizona on Saturday to move to 5-2 and are now 4.5-point favorites against the visiting Cincinnati Bearcats. We break down their chances in our early college football picks below.
Coach Prime and the Colorado Buffaloes look to stay hot as they host the Cincinnati Bearcats at Folsom Field in Week 9.
The Buffs have rattled off four wins in their last five games, and my Cincinnati vs. Colorado predictions expect them to play well again this weekend.
See what I think of the Buffaloes with my college football picks for Saturday, October 26.
Cincinnati vs Colorado predictions
Early spread lean
Colorado -4.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Everyone seems to be chasing last year’s dream of fading Coach Prime and the Colorado Buffaloes after the world bought in too heavy following a surprising start to the season followed by a miserable collapse. The Buffs have been severely underrated in the market thanks to wise guys wanting to be on the bearish side of the Prime experiment, getting out to a 5-2 ATS start through seven games.
Colorado is a much more complete team than a year ago. Part of that is thanks to a much-improved defense allowing just 21.9 ppg and 366.6 total yards on 5.4 yards per play. That defense will be tested by a Cincinnati Bearcats offense averaging 30.0 ppg and 451.4 total yards.
The key news in this game is the health of two-way star and Heisman contender Travis Hunter. He left the Kansas State game two weeks ago with a shoulder injury and played snaps on both sides of the ball last week against Arizona but had minimal impact in the first half before sitting out the second half.
It’s unlikely that Hunter is 100%. It’s also understandable that he was rested during the second half of a blowout win in which Colorado’s defensive front dominated the Wildcats and ensured no chance of a comeback. At this point, it would be a minor surprise if he doesn’t see the field and play both ways in Week 9.
Cincinnati has a pretty record, but its performance has been less convincing than Colorado’s. The Bearcats’ back-to-back wins came over two backup quarterbacks — Arizona State’s Jeff Sims completed just 52.2% of his passes, while UCF true freshman 17-year-old EJ Colson managed zero total yards across a scoreless first half before returning to the bench.
Colorado has been more convincing in its wins and losses, while Cincinnati has faced a relatively poor strength of schedule. Give me the Buffs to keep rolling.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 57.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The book on Shedeur Sanders is that he will absolutely boil your defense alive unless you can create pressure. Cincinnati is mediocre at best in creating pressure, ranking 61st in PFF’s pass-rushing metric and 62nd in sacks per game (2.0).
Sanders should have a successful day at the office against a defense that struggled mightily a year ago and hasn’t shown enough improvement for me to be a full believer.
The Bearcats are getting a lot of credit for allowing just 27 combined points across their last two games, but they still allowed 6.1 yards per play to Arizona Sate’s backup quarterback and 5.5 yards per play to UCF’s backup quarterback who, as mentioned earlier, managed zero total yards across nearly a full quarter or work before getting benched.
Cincinnati’s defense was exposed by Texas Tech (44 points on 482 total yards and 7.4 yards per play) and Pittsburgh (28 points on 498 total yards and 7.3 yards per play). Lower-level teams also had success at FCS Towson mustered 438 total yards and Miami (OH) averaged 6.3 yards per play and threw for 356 yards.
On the flip side, Cincinnati’s offense has been moving effectively. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby is completing 67.2% of his passes and averaging 8.3 yards per attempt, while the ground game is picking up 172.4 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry.
Both teams should be able to score the ball in this spot. Cincinnati’s offensive expectations seem to have been lowered a bit after two straight low-scoring games but keep in mind that both contests came against backup quarterbacks.
I’ll bet on Colorado’s offense operating at normal deadliness and Cincinnati’s well-balanced attack finding the endzone enough for this to cash.
Cincinnati vs Colorado live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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